Corolla, NC
$319,000
3 Bedroom 2 Bath
MLS# 69204
301 Cobbs Way
Nags Head, NC 27959
Nags Head Westside
$325,000
MLS#: 69098
Bedrooms: 4 Baths: 2.5
This home is in superb condition. Hardwood floors upstairs and downstairs in foyer and hallway. Three bedrooms on the 1st level and one bedroom on the 2nd level creates one floor living. Nice pantry and half bath off kitchen. Incredible deck space, over 1200 sq ft of decking. Watch the Manteo fireworks from the comfort of the back deck. Nice patio area under the home and a covered dry entry for those rainy days. Great location in Nags Head.
Remember this great song? Who would have thought the lyrics to be so relevant for a real estate market? The song goes on to say…”if I go there will be trouble, if I stay it will be double!” So come on agents, what advice do we give to sellers? Should they stay or should they go?
Well, it’s not an easy question to answer sometimes. There are some factors that have to be considered before making such a big decision. I always take the position with my clients that I give them the complete picture of both scenarios. If you sell, here’s what it will take. If you stay, here’s what you need to expect. Since I have this conversation SO OFTEN these days, I decided to write a little outline on some ideas and consequences all based on statistical data. As the saying goes…numbers don’t lie. Once I present this information, then it’s up to the seller. At least I know I’ve done what I can to help them make the best decision.
As a side note, the information provided here is based on the Outer Banks market only. Please feel free to input actual data from your own market as the concepts will likely be the same.
So, should you stay or should you go?
Now you’re probably thinking, well all that sounds good, but how do you know for sure it’s going to take 7 years? As I said in a previous blog, I don’t have a crystal ball. What I do have are statistics. Statistical trends are pretty solid indicators of what to expect. If they weren’t, they wouldn’t be used in any industry for predictions. That being said, here is some actual data that contributes to the 7 year timeline.
1. The top 3 sources resort buyers use to provide their down payment when buying on the Outer Banks are –
a. Equity from their primary residence or the sale of some piece of real estate. Until more people have equity in their homes, the number of buyer sales will stay limited.
b. Stock, bonds, funds or other investment sales
c. Bonuses, inheritance or some kind of money gifted
How long will it take before more buyers feel confident in this economy to use these kinds of funds for real estate purchases, rather than saving due to the economy?
2. Foreclosures. 16% of our active listings are a distress sale. Sounds small, right? Well, consider 40% of closed sales each month is a distress sale. While we don’t have an overwhelming inventory, they are certainly a BIG percentage of what’s selling. Does a distress sale affect the price of your home? With so many, how can it not affect you? The good news here is that 60% of sales are regular homeowners. They are also priced competitively with the distress sales.
3. Shadow Inventory. It is estimated banks are holding 50% of their foreclosed inventory off the market in an effort not to crash it. They are strategically releasing homes for sale slowly because they know more supply equals less demand equals lower pricing. So, if we have another 2 to 3 years of 16% of our inventory being distressed and 40% of closings being distressed, how can prices go up?
4. Homes are still being foreclosed on. Let’s not forget the foreclosure crisis is still happening. We get weekly reports in Dare and Currituck Counties of homes that are facing foreclosure. Each week there are at least 15 to 20 homes on the list. That’s 60 to 80 more foreclosed homes a month! How can we hit the bottom and start recovery with that many properties still being taken back by the bank and facing the open market at some point for considerably lower prices?
5. Inventory of regular properties. A normal market has 6 or less months of inventory actively for sale at any given time. Right now, we have over 2 years worth of inventory. AND, that ‘s if nothing else came on the market. Each month we get about 375 new listings. If we have right now OVER 2 years worth of properties to sell, how will it be better next year?
6. Once we DO hit the bottom, prices aren’t going to rebound instantly. So let’s say in 3 years we hit the bottom, prices stop going down and we have a better handle on inventory. How long will it take to climb back up to the price you’re comfortable with? Another 3, 4, 5 years? The decline didn’t happen overnight, neither will the recovery.
Please understand my goal with this information is not gloom and doom, rather reality. With the right agent, right exposure and right PRICE, your home WILL sell. That’s not the question. The question is typically when can we get more? The answer…7 or more years. If that doesn’t fit into your plan, sooner is better than later. Time is not your friend in a declining market.
So before it costs you double, give us a call for a complete analysis on YOUR Outer Banks home.
I’m announcing 2011 as MY year for recovery. Does that mean I think the housing market is going to make a full recovery this year? No, hardly. In fact, I recognize that the market isn’t going to help me at all. It’s not my friend. I don’t care. I’m not concerned about the market. I have a job to do, clients to help and a business to run.
I figure I have two choices here…I can come up with all the reasons why I won’t achieve my goals, or all the reasons that I WILL! There is no substitute for hard work and good skills, especially in this market. I know my skills are strong and getting stronger. I heard once that in this market you will need 50% Hard Work, 50% Sales Skills and 50% Mindset. Now, obviously that adds up to 150%, which is EXACTLY what is needed in today’s market.
In my real estate recovery year, I’ve identified a few “aggressive” questions I need to ask myself on a regular basis. I thought I’d share them with you as well.
With the right mindset, accountability and skills THERE’S NO STOPPING ME! The best part is, not only will my business grow but my clients will be the biggest winners!